120 Years of Temperature Increases and Economic Growth
with Moritz Schularick, and Petr Sedláček 

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We investigate the economic impacts of climate change, spanning from the Second Industrial Revolution to the present day. We contribute to the literature that examines the relationship between changing temperatures and economic growth across a panel of countries. Unlike previous studies that focus solely on data from 1950 onward, emphasizing the warming phase linked to the Great Acceleration, our historical approach enables us to incorporate an earlier warming period that occurred in the early 20th century. This long run perspective allows us to explore low-frequency effects and  potential adaptations to climate change.

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​​​​Creating Expectations: Propaganda and the Economic Recovery in Nazi Germany

with Alexander Kriwoluzky, Andrea Papadia, and Moritz Schularick

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​We study the little-understood recovery of the German economy from the Great Depression under the Nazis starting in 1933. Our project asks if the role of fiscal policy as a driver of the recovery has to be fundamentally reassessed once the effects of expectation creation are considered. The central hypothesis we explore is that Nazi communication and propaganda efforts created the perception of large present and future fiscal spending and thereby boosted the effectiveness of the fiscal stimulus much beyond its actual size. We empirically test this hypothesis using a panel model framework and a newly compiled regional dataset that includes monthly unemployment figures and an exogenous measure of fiscal radio propaganda.

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Crisis and Inequality
with Òscar Jordá, Alan Taylor, Moritz Schularick, and Nadezhda Zhuravleva

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We conduct an empirical investigation into the distributional impacts of financial crises. Our research aims to quantify how these crises shape both wealth and income distributions. To this end, we are synthesizing longitudinal data on income and wealth inequality with macro-financial datasets. Our analysis encompasses a panel of countries and extends back to the early 20th century, offering a comprehensive historical perspective on the relationship between financial crises and economic inequality.

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Fiscal Capacity in the Euro Area

with Chi Hyun Kim 

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We leverage financial market data to empirically examine the impact of participating in a currency union on the fiscal capacity of individual countries. We assemble a comprehensive dataset encompassing corporate and sovereign bonds from all member countries within the euro area and extract factors that reflect both currency-union-specific and country-specific risks.We document how these risks vary throughout the euro area's history and along the yield curve, and correlate with monetary policy milestones of the currency union.

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Natural Disaster and Financial Stability: Evidence from 120 Years

with Moritz Schularick, and Petr Sedláček 

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We empirically examine the link between natural disasters and financial stability, a matter of current concern for central banks. We quantitatively assess, across a panel of countries, the impact of natural disasters on the likelihood of a financial crisis. This research is vital because the frequency of natural disasters has significantly risen over the last half-century and is expected to continue increasing due to climate change. However, until now, quantitative evidence has been lacking. Our findings reveal a significant positive relationship indicating that natural disasters indeed elevate the risk of financial crises.

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Wealth Inequality in Finland

with Ciprian Domnisoru, Chi Hyun Kim, Timm Prein, and Oskari Vähämaa

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We adopt a historical perspective to chart the evolution of wealth in Finland from the late 19th century to the present. By synthesizing historical survey data with tax records, we construct a comprehensive timeline of wealth dynamics. Our research specifically illuminates the persistent wealth disparity between Finland's Finnish-speaking and Swedish-speaking populations, offering insights into the long-term socioeconomic structures of the country.

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I have been awarded the Add-on Fellowship for Interdisciplinary Economics from the Joachim Herz Stiftung for 2024/2025 for this project.

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